If you ever wanted to know who was the master drafter in our history, you might be surprised to see that Matt Suer is the answer to that question. Matty hasn't ever made a deep playoff run but I think we might be able to explain his spot atop this list if you give me just a quick minute. For one, it's pretty tough to get a positive score for an individual draft so the fact that Matt's only done three drafts limits the possibility of him racking up the negative value picks compared to the rest of us. Secondly, Matt had a pretty good draft last year and hasn't killed himself with drafts in his Shocker career in my opinion. I think Matt needed a couple of seasons to figure this fantasy baseball thing out in terms of making smart in season moves and I think that's also why he hasn't turned good drafts into good final results yet. Now that we've spent enough time on Matty, let's break down the rest of us. I was a little surprised that Arch n' Rick aren't ranked a little higher because they generally have fielded strong teams throughout our history. Kevin seems to do his heavy lifting during the regular season on the waiver wire and trying to outlast his opponent with counting stats and timely acquisitions but he might want to rethink his power hitting/relief pitching focus when he drafts if he thinks these numbers above mean anything. I honestly can't draw any other conclusions with any sort of confidence because we've all had our share of good drafts and bad drafts and the differences within this table isn't large enough to make distinctions between one owner from the next. If we broke down each season in terms of draft scores and overall record, I think we'd see a connection but trying to determine our best and worst drafters based on this table above probably needs some more research to truly prove.
If you're wondering how your draft picks graded out when all was said and done, this is your answer. The numbers on this table represent the total expected player rater points versus actual player rater points for all of our draft picks. If you trust my expected value math, you'll see that there is a decent correlation between our draft success and team success in 2013. Arch n' Rick usually go heavy on the pitching early in the draft and that pitch-first strategy paid off nicely in 2013 as they topped the draft ratings. Matt Suer proved that you don't need to target pitching in order to get great results. Matt Suer also proved that you don't even need to draft your own team to get great results. Matty let the CPU do most of the work and the computer picked a lot of nice sleeper bats for Matt. You can see from these grades that a good draft doesn't guarantee a title run but a bad draft will absolutely crush your chances. The bottom of this list looks very similar to the bottom of our final standings. Even though there is a lot of time to make up for your draft mistakes, it's pretty obvious that staying away from the busts on draft night is key to staying away from the Shocker Baseball basement.
Winning the Shocker Fantasy Baseball League title is hard enough and it's downright daunting if one of your early picks goes kersplat. Most of the owners that finished in the bottom half of our league are on this list and they can probably put some of the blame on these 2013 dud muffins. Verlander fought injury and inconsistency for Laser all season to send Lance to the cellar. Kemp and Bautista were two of the many power hitters for Kevin and also two of the many players that under performed for K. Petty in 2013. The Marlins and Rockies will forever be linked as 1993 expansion teams and it was Stanton and Tulo that made Richard look like an expansion owner by getting his ass kicked on a weekly basis. I wasn't sure where Braun and B.J. Upton should be ranked because they weren't on a roster at the end of the season but they should be condemned for being a cheater and a god-fucking-awful outfield option for Downs and Jerome. Longoria and Sabathia seemed to fight injuries throughout 2013 and Castillo and Maydew are probably hoping they would've just sat out the season rather than drag down their stats in the starting lineup. All these guys won't go as high in the draft as they did in 2013 and it will be interesting to see who is willing to take a chance on the injury concerns that plague most of these 2013 busts.
We're going from macro to micro in this post as we take a look at the best values taken on draft night for the 2013 season. Harvey probably tops this list for J. Petty if his elbow doesn't explode on him at the end of the season, which was a damn shame for Jeff and baseball fans alike. Hisashi Iwakuma is tough to say and still isn't a household name but he will be more recognized in 2014 thanks to a breakout 2013 campaign. Iwakuma was the smartest draft pick of the night, which was made by the pitching gem finder, Lance Perez. Matt Suer did a bang up job autodrafting this year with two solid sleepers of Segura and Goldschmidt. Jerome made some bonehead picks but he was able to rebound by scooping up his best SP and best RP in middle rounds. David Ortiz beat father time for another season for Maydew while Davis, Werth, and Castillo provided a little light in what was a dark season for those owners.
This will augment the Worst Picks of All Time post in that the players above had the highest expected values for those that ended the season in the free agent pool. The reason I added this table is because of the way ESPN presents the data and the way I collected the data doesn't show final Player Rater scores for free agents. That means these guys don't have a calculated "Value Difference" so I can't quantify exactly how awful a pick they were but there's no doubt they should be recognized as horrible disappointments.
This list has a nice collection of reasons for falling off the fantasy map. Webb and Sizemore got thier first of many debilitating injuries. Dunn and Howard showed how big fat fatties can slowly eat away at your title chances one plate appearance at a time. Ryan Braun tops the list when he sorta failed his pee test and was told to hit the golden showers by Selig when he suspended Braun for the remainder of the 2013 season. The early draft studs get no love from these evaluations. They can't make the Best Picks of All Time list because there is so much expected in the first place but you'll see they get all the hate on the Worst Picks of All Time list. The reason these busts are on here is pretty simple, they are expected to earn tons of Player Rater points but fail to do so, usually because on injury.
Tulowitzki is a polarizing player in the Colorado region and all of the anti-Tulo people will point to his 2012 season as to why. Nobody questions Tulo's talent because it's off the charts, but he's never been able to stay on the field much, which buries his value to the Rockies and whoever drafted him in fantasy baseball that year. Rich has carried Tulo on his roster many seasons and undoubtedly regrets keeping him in 2012. Rich wasn't the only one burned by injuries in 2012 as you can see almost half of this list contains studs who broke down that season. For some of Lance's smart sleeper picks, you can see that they have been pretty much offset by the big busts above. Lance might be the only American willing to give A-Rod a second chance and A-Rod burned Laser twice. At least Lance can't draft him this year. We shouldn't point and laugh at the owners above because most of these injuries surprised their owners and most of them helped derail a fantasy season. One takeaway from this list is that it points to the start of some major injury concerns for these players. For those that draft Verlander, Bautista, and Tulo in 2014, keep your fingers crossed that they don't end up on this list again. To let everyone know how these are calculated, I assigned an "expected value" to each player depending on where they were drafted. Early draft picks are expected to bring more value than late round picks and the formula I used reflects that. I based the formula off of the average Player Rater score for that pick in our league history and distributed it evenly from top to bottom. An example, is that the first overall pick has historically earned a 14.00 on the player rater so that's the expected value for the first overall pick. The last pick is expected to earn 0.60 on the player rater. This table highlights the best value which means you won't see many top picks on here. Miguel Cabrera can be drafted in the first round, earn the most Player Rater points, and still not make this list just because so much was expected in the first place. You get the picture, I hope. Now for a short breakdown...
I generally hate it when people speculate PED use with zero evidence but you might be able to convince me that Jacoby Ellsbury was juicing in 2011 based on his stats alone. That pretty boy has never hit double digit homers in any season except for 2011 when he smashed 32 out of nowhere. The Brady Anderson strength program could be the reason for the spike. Kris Medlen is a definite surprise pick and not only because he had such a great 2012 but also that somebody actually drafted him that year. Laser knew something we didn't about Kris with a K who racked up the K's in 2012. Lance also found a gem in Iwakuma during the back end of our draft in 2013, which means Laser either has some golden sleepers on his cheat sheet or is getting a little lucky lately. This list is loaded with guys you would expect and by that I'm saying you can look at the table above and see exactly when the all stars of today had their breakout seasons. Don't sleep on these sleepers. |
AuthorThe Commish Archives
July 2015
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