Round one of this year's D12 playoffs showed why we love fantasy football and why we hate fantasy football. We love fantasy football because there's no such thing as a sure thing, no matter how many games in a row a team has won. We hate fantasy football because you can spend 13 weeks building the strongest lineup in the league only to see it crumble thanks mostly to a bad game from maybe the best QB ever. We love fantasy football when a player gets red hot and continues to dominate at the most important time, like Le'Veon Bell. We hate fantasy football when a great player gets a favorable matchup and ruins your season with a shitty game (Brees) or early injury (Brandon Marshall). We've played fantasy football long enough to expect the unexpected during the postseason and we had more of our fair share of surprises and disappointments in round one.
Before I break down the bracket, let me just take a quick moment to quickly recap all of our historical 1 through 8 seed records in the first round, including this year, to reinforce that playoff seeding means almost nothing once the ball is kicked off the tee in round one.
Before I break down the bracket, let me just take a quick moment to quickly recap all of our historical 1 through 8 seed records in the first round, including this year, to reinforce that playoff seeding means almost nothing once the ball is kicked off the tee in round one.
#1 Denver Donkey Punches vs. #8 Graham's Crackers
Knowing that a 1 seed has advanced to the 2nd round only 60% of the time, it shouldn't shock us to see the 8 seed get a round one upset victory this week. Then again, the Donkey Punches were not a regular old 1 seed. I don't need to run down the long list of current records that the 2014 Donkey Punches hold and I'm sure every owner in this league, including Chris, gave Zach about a 85% chance of advancing. It's incredible that Zach hasn't fallen victim to a game filled with bad luck and worse performances lately but all of Suer's luck came crashing down for what Zach will refer to as Black Sunday from here on out. The bad luck started with Rashad Jennings, who was active for his game, which should've been a good thing for Zach but it definitely was not. I'm guessing Zach had his pulse on the NY Giants RB situation and I'm sure Zach went back and forth all Sunday morning based on the varying injury and workload information that was being thrown out there. This presented a couple of options based on imperfect information but this is also a gameday decision that Zach Suer has gotten right most of the time.
Suer rolled with Jennings, who was definitely far from a sure thing even with his active designation and it turned out to bury Zach and his collection of Donkeys. If Zach decided to tempt his fate and go with Andre Williams, he advances to round 2. I'm not saying Zach made a blatantly stupid coaching decision because of all of the different info he had available but it turned out as bad as he could've feared. This (New York) giant mistake could've been a moot point if some of Zach's studs decided not to have their worst game of the season at the worst possible time. Nobody could've predicted 2.6 points from Peyton Manning, nor could they predict Alf Morris was going to post 1.7 on the day. These were absolute backbreakers and I would be pretty confident that at least 75% of Peyton Manning owners got eliminated from their leagues this week based on his game that blindsided owners. Suer hasn't scored less than 70 points since week 7 of 2011 (that's 55 straight games) and while he might love 69ing on a Sunday, he was plugging his nose at the foul stench that came from the D-Punches nether region with a 69 point performance this week.
Knowing that a 1 seed has advanced to the 2nd round only 60% of the time, it shouldn't shock us to see the 8 seed get a round one upset victory this week. Then again, the Donkey Punches were not a regular old 1 seed. I don't need to run down the long list of current records that the 2014 Donkey Punches hold and I'm sure every owner in this league, including Chris, gave Zach about a 85% chance of advancing. It's incredible that Zach hasn't fallen victim to a game filled with bad luck and worse performances lately but all of Suer's luck came crashing down for what Zach will refer to as Black Sunday from here on out. The bad luck started with Rashad Jennings, who was active for his game, which should've been a good thing for Zach but it definitely was not. I'm guessing Zach had his pulse on the NY Giants RB situation and I'm sure Zach went back and forth all Sunday morning based on the varying injury and workload information that was being thrown out there. This presented a couple of options based on imperfect information but this is also a gameday decision that Zach Suer has gotten right most of the time.
Suer rolled with Jennings, who was definitely far from a sure thing even with his active designation and it turned out to bury Zach and his collection of Donkeys. If Zach decided to tempt his fate and go with Andre Williams, he advances to round 2. I'm not saying Zach made a blatantly stupid coaching decision because of all of the different info he had available but it turned out as bad as he could've feared. This (New York) giant mistake could've been a moot point if some of Zach's studs decided not to have their worst game of the season at the worst possible time. Nobody could've predicted 2.6 points from Peyton Manning, nor could they predict Alf Morris was going to post 1.7 on the day. These were absolute backbreakers and I would be pretty confident that at least 75% of Peyton Manning owners got eliminated from their leagues this week based on his game that blindsided owners. Suer hasn't scored less than 70 points since week 7 of 2011 (that's 55 straight games) and while he might love 69ing on a Sunday, he was plugging his nose at the foul stench that came from the D-Punches nether region with a 69 point performance this week.
Chris Marvel is pretty lucky to be in the semifinals because outside of Matt Stafford, Isaiah Crowell, and Antonio Brown, his team wasn't worthy of advancing. LeSean McCoy was like every other Eagles player this week and got buried by the Seahawks all day, Mike Wallace is still not on the same page with Tannehill, something is obviously up with Jimmy Graham, and the D and kicker combined for 8 points. Chris would've lost to every other owner in the league this week besides Fanning or Suer so this is probably the only case in fantasy football history where an owner was glad to be playing a 13-0 #1 seed in the first round. Chris was hoping that Stafford would payback some of Chris's faith and a 311 yard, 3 touchdown game will get Matty back in Chris's good graces, for one week anyway. Stafford personified Chris's lucky week because a bounce like this that went from a worst case scenario of -2 points to a best case scenario of a 6.1 point play was a gift from the heavens and also a play that helped Chris avoid a panic stricken Monday night decision with Roddy White and his gimpy ankle.
Chris was a pretty solid 8 seed but based on what we saw here, this will go down as one of the most memorable playoff upsets in D12's history and most of that is because of bounces and decisions that make us love and hate fantasy football. It was a game that sent shockwaves through the league as we all stood in amazement while Chris jumped and screamed "Down goes Suer! Down goes Suer! Down goes Suer!" in his living room on Sunday night. Nobody could've scripted this loss like the WWE did when the Undertaker's streak of 21 consecutive Wrestlemania victories was broken but the gasps and looks of genuine shock were just the same when both Suer and Taker were pinned 1-2-3.
#4 I'm Your Huckleberry vs. #5 Westminster White Devils
Castillo and Fanning probably took a peek at Zach's week 15 lineup with the foregone conclusion that he would be their round 2 opponent if they were lucky enough to advance but both had to refocus on their round one opponent that was coming off their best week of the season. Much like the Punches vs. Crackers game, some abominable performances played a key role in the outcome of this #4 vs. #5 game. Both Drew Brees and Andrew Luck were setup to have a real bare knuckle brawl this Sunday but both QB's were taking hits far more than they were dishing them out early Sunday. Luck had a really bad game against the Browns and even though his 27.3 fantasy points doesn't show that, he was constantly harassed and completed only 45% of his passes. I don't know if it's the bad offensive line, Drew's age, or both but Brees hasn't been dominant for most of 2014 and he was downright atrocious Sunday for Fanning. You couldn't blame Fanning for getting his hopes up after seeing Brees throw for five touchdowns last week and dreaming of a similar performance against the sieve-like Panthers secondary. Brees and the Saints continued to be wildly inconsistent and proceeded to get walloped at home against Carolina, which pretty much buried any chances that Fanning had against our hottest team.
Castillo probably wasn't thrilled with DeSean Jackson's inactive status on Sunday morning but he got a surprising performance from Sammy Watkins, who looked more like himself with 10.7 points in place of DeSean. The difference was all in the backfield as Jamaal Charles and Le'Veon Bell combined for 64.6 points and a lot of game breaking plays on Sunday. Bell now has three consecutive games of 200 or more all purpose yards and is carrying thousands of fantasy teams to potential glory. Castillo looked destined to be the one to break Zach's streak but he got an early Christmas present when Suer was defeated, which should greatly improve Castillo's overall chances at the Cup. Castillo will now be careful what he wishes for when he takes on the 8 seeded Chris Marvel next.
#3 Ambiguously Gay Duo vs. #6 Dirk Diggler
The Pep's have played in one Fantasy Bowl, which was two years ago and a big reason they failed to drink from the Granger Cup was because Matt Ryan played out of his mind for J.P. The Pep's had revenge on their minds when they took on J.P. in round one and once again Matt Ryan is a huge reason why the Pep's won't be ordering one Granger Cup with two straws this year, either. Thursday started out great for the Pep's, ahem, let me clear that up, actually. It started out awful for the Pep's as once again Jay Cutler was doing diddly poo with the ball but Cutler put on his Waste Management jumpsuit in the second half and collected the garbage time points by the barrel to finish with 30.5 points, which turned into a great start for the Pep's. DeMarco Murray answered back for diZerega with 28.8 points of his own, which could've been a lot more with the amount of times the Cowboys had it within the Bears redzone. The focus shifted to Sunday where the point scoring was grounded to a halt with Bernard, Landry, Allen, and the Dolphins D infuriating the Pep's while Mason, Colston, and Gates didn't do much to improve J.P.'s chances.
With a slight lead, the Pep's held their brotherly breaths on Monday night hoping that the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones connection would go offline in Green Bay. Jordy Nelson did his usual stuff for Ace n' Gary by running by everyone for a deep pass but Jordy's huge 26.6 point game was no match for the 80.2 combined points that Ryan and Jones scored for J.P. Jones was open all night long and as impressive as 31.9 fantasy points is, it could've been even more if Jones hadn't been tackled at the two yard line in the second half and failed to get two feet down later that game. Jones put on one of the best receiving playoff performances we've ever seen and Matt Ryan looked very comfortable looking Julio's way every time he dropped back. J.P. will go into round two coming off a huge 149 point game and the warm, fuzzy feeling of knowing that Ryan and Jones are working together in perfect harmony once again. As for the Pep's, they were bound to get bit by the points against goblin at some point as they've been riding some lucky wins but they will also be pissed that they were the unlucky duo that went up against our top scoring team of the week. If the Pep's make the playoffs next year and they see J.P. and Matt Ryan waiting for them on their computer, expect them to have this reaction.
Castillo and Fanning probably took a peek at Zach's week 15 lineup with the foregone conclusion that he would be their round 2 opponent if they were lucky enough to advance but both had to refocus on their round one opponent that was coming off their best week of the season. Much like the Punches vs. Crackers game, some abominable performances played a key role in the outcome of this #4 vs. #5 game. Both Drew Brees and Andrew Luck were setup to have a real bare knuckle brawl this Sunday but both QB's were taking hits far more than they were dishing them out early Sunday. Luck had a really bad game against the Browns and even though his 27.3 fantasy points doesn't show that, he was constantly harassed and completed only 45% of his passes. I don't know if it's the bad offensive line, Drew's age, or both but Brees hasn't been dominant for most of 2014 and he was downright atrocious Sunday for Fanning. You couldn't blame Fanning for getting his hopes up after seeing Brees throw for five touchdowns last week and dreaming of a similar performance against the sieve-like Panthers secondary. Brees and the Saints continued to be wildly inconsistent and proceeded to get walloped at home against Carolina, which pretty much buried any chances that Fanning had against our hottest team.
Castillo probably wasn't thrilled with DeSean Jackson's inactive status on Sunday morning but he got a surprising performance from Sammy Watkins, who looked more like himself with 10.7 points in place of DeSean. The difference was all in the backfield as Jamaal Charles and Le'Veon Bell combined for 64.6 points and a lot of game breaking plays on Sunday. Bell now has three consecutive games of 200 or more all purpose yards and is carrying thousands of fantasy teams to potential glory. Castillo looked destined to be the one to break Zach's streak but he got an early Christmas present when Suer was defeated, which should greatly improve Castillo's overall chances at the Cup. Castillo will now be careful what he wishes for when he takes on the 8 seeded Chris Marvel next.
#3 Ambiguously Gay Duo vs. #6 Dirk Diggler
The Pep's have played in one Fantasy Bowl, which was two years ago and a big reason they failed to drink from the Granger Cup was because Matt Ryan played out of his mind for J.P. The Pep's had revenge on their minds when they took on J.P. in round one and once again Matt Ryan is a huge reason why the Pep's won't be ordering one Granger Cup with two straws this year, either. Thursday started out great for the Pep's, ahem, let me clear that up, actually. It started out awful for the Pep's as once again Jay Cutler was doing diddly poo with the ball but Cutler put on his Waste Management jumpsuit in the second half and collected the garbage time points by the barrel to finish with 30.5 points, which turned into a great start for the Pep's. DeMarco Murray answered back for diZerega with 28.8 points of his own, which could've been a lot more with the amount of times the Cowboys had it within the Bears redzone. The focus shifted to Sunday where the point scoring was grounded to a halt with Bernard, Landry, Allen, and the Dolphins D infuriating the Pep's while Mason, Colston, and Gates didn't do much to improve J.P.'s chances.
With a slight lead, the Pep's held their brotherly breaths on Monday night hoping that the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones connection would go offline in Green Bay. Jordy Nelson did his usual stuff for Ace n' Gary by running by everyone for a deep pass but Jordy's huge 26.6 point game was no match for the 80.2 combined points that Ryan and Jones scored for J.P. Jones was open all night long and as impressive as 31.9 fantasy points is, it could've been even more if Jones hadn't been tackled at the two yard line in the second half and failed to get two feet down later that game. Jones put on one of the best receiving playoff performances we've ever seen and Matt Ryan looked very comfortable looking Julio's way every time he dropped back. J.P. will go into round two coming off a huge 149 point game and the warm, fuzzy feeling of knowing that Ryan and Jones are working together in perfect harmony once again. As for the Pep's, they were bound to get bit by the points against goblin at some point as they've been riding some lucky wins but they will also be pissed that they were the unlucky duo that went up against our top scoring team of the week. If the Pep's make the playoffs next year and they see J.P. and Matt Ryan waiting for them on their computer, expect them to have this reaction.
#2 That's My Forte vs. #7 Nerf Turbos
To call this seven seed win an upset doesn't tell the true story as the commish came into this game with more points scored than Granger and arguably had a better overall roster when these two faced off. Thursday night football isn't always appointment television but for all of the Chicago Bears that occupied important positions on these fantasy rosters, you can bet Jerome and Jeff were glued to every play on Thursday night. Meyer might've gotten a hint of what was to come when Brandon Marshall took a flying knee to his back and with Marshall looking well on his way to 100 receiving yards, a trip to the hospital was a real momentum buster for Grange. This bit of bad news had a rippling effect for both fantasy teams as now Cutler focused most of his attention on Bennett and Jeffery when he took a seven step drop. Both Bennett and Jeffery had big games and even though Forte helped Jeff fight back with 16 points, it was DeFelice who could claim a TNF victory for the Turbos. Jerome continued to get big game performances from his pass catchers as Jackson and Hilton stepped up with 15.5 and 25 point games on Sunday. It's hard to trust everything on twitter but I do have to thank that social media bird for alerting me of Torrey Smith's pregame gimp, which led to me benching him and avoiding a 0 point game. The commish needed just 12.8 points from Rodgers, Lacy, and the Pack D on MNF and he was able to get that with ease. The commish will hope that his receivers stay hot as he looks towards his round 2 matchup against Joe Paul diZerega.
If there was a D12 pregame show, half of the windbags probably would've picked the commish to win while the other half of the bullshitters would've gone with Meyer. It was a pretty even game on paper leading up to kickoff but one thing Meyer could not afford to fuck up was his starting quarterback selection. Meyer had to choose between the double chin and the douche bag this week and Meyer picked the right passer as Roethlisberger outscored Rivers by 21.7 points. Not much was going right on Sunday but Big Ben's 94 yard TD toss gave Meyer a glimmer of hope as the game unfolded. Even though the Lions predictably had their way with the Bucs, not much else went according to plan for Jeff as Delanie Walker and Anquan Boldin were held in check, Sanders was hung out to dry more than a few times by Peyton, and Shane Vereen continued to be a total nonfactor for this team. Meyer was able to move all of his possessions into a new house in Superior this weekend but the one spot he designated for the Granger Cup will be collecting dust for 13 months or more after this early playoff exit.
Hurricane D12 has claimed four fantasy lives and the remaining four survivors will have to take a look at the surronuding rubble and try to board up their windows when the next hurricane is set to hit this weekend. I'll be back on Thursday to preview our Final Four and hopefully you will be back here with me.
To call this seven seed win an upset doesn't tell the true story as the commish came into this game with more points scored than Granger and arguably had a better overall roster when these two faced off. Thursday night football isn't always appointment television but for all of the Chicago Bears that occupied important positions on these fantasy rosters, you can bet Jerome and Jeff were glued to every play on Thursday night. Meyer might've gotten a hint of what was to come when Brandon Marshall took a flying knee to his back and with Marshall looking well on his way to 100 receiving yards, a trip to the hospital was a real momentum buster for Grange. This bit of bad news had a rippling effect for both fantasy teams as now Cutler focused most of his attention on Bennett and Jeffery when he took a seven step drop. Both Bennett and Jeffery had big games and even though Forte helped Jeff fight back with 16 points, it was DeFelice who could claim a TNF victory for the Turbos. Jerome continued to get big game performances from his pass catchers as Jackson and Hilton stepped up with 15.5 and 25 point games on Sunday. It's hard to trust everything on twitter but I do have to thank that social media bird for alerting me of Torrey Smith's pregame gimp, which led to me benching him and avoiding a 0 point game. The commish needed just 12.8 points from Rodgers, Lacy, and the Pack D on MNF and he was able to get that with ease. The commish will hope that his receivers stay hot as he looks towards his round 2 matchup against Joe Paul diZerega.
If there was a D12 pregame show, half of the windbags probably would've picked the commish to win while the other half of the bullshitters would've gone with Meyer. It was a pretty even game on paper leading up to kickoff but one thing Meyer could not afford to fuck up was his starting quarterback selection. Meyer had to choose between the double chin and the douche bag this week and Meyer picked the right passer as Roethlisberger outscored Rivers by 21.7 points. Not much was going right on Sunday but Big Ben's 94 yard TD toss gave Meyer a glimmer of hope as the game unfolded. Even though the Lions predictably had their way with the Bucs, not much else went according to plan for Jeff as Delanie Walker and Anquan Boldin were held in check, Sanders was hung out to dry more than a few times by Peyton, and Shane Vereen continued to be a total nonfactor for this team. Meyer was able to move all of his possessions into a new house in Superior this weekend but the one spot he designated for the Granger Cup will be collecting dust for 13 months or more after this early playoff exit.
Hurricane D12 has claimed four fantasy lives and the remaining four survivors will have to take a look at the surronuding rubble and try to board up their windows when the next hurricane is set to hit this weekend. I'll be back on Thursday to preview our Final Four and hopefully you will be back here with me.